?»?What Is an Underdog in Sports Betting?
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In just about any game ??” professional sports or otherwise ??” there??™s going to be an expected winner and an expected loser. Teams and players rarely have the exact same level of talent, so when, say, the 11th-place Kings have to play the first-place Lakers, we aren??™t expecting Sacramento to come away with a win.
And while that may not be the most complicated concept to understand, it??™s a fundamental one when it comes to sports betting ??” the underdog .
What Is an Underdog?
In sports betting, an underdog is a team or player expected to lose a given game or event.
In the example above, the underdog would be the Kings, as they??™d be expected to lose against the Lakers, who would be the favorite. And oddsmakers have two ways of quantifying how big an underdog is: the spread and the moneyline.
How Do I Know Who Is the Underdog?
Point Spread Underdog.
The ???spread??? is the difference between the two teams in play in terms of their expected points to be scored in the game. This allows bettors to make bets on how close a game will be, as opposed to simply betting on the winner and loser.
The greater the spread, the bigger the underdog.
In the case above, the Kings are seen as 11.5-point underdogs against the Lakers. That means that in order for a Kings bet to win, they??™d need to lose by no more than 11 points, or win the game outright. If they were to lose by 12 points or more, Sacramento bettors would lose their money.
You??™ll notice that both spreads are listed in front of a minus number (-110). That number is simply to denote the vig (tax) taken by the sportsbook. In other words, regardless of which spread you choose to take, you??™ll have to risk $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10, etc.).
In some cases, though, the teams will be seen as even matches, and the spread will be zero points (called a pick??™em). In such a game, assuming the vig is once again -110 on each side, there is no underdog. If one team??™s vig was lower, however (-105 vs. -115, for example), that team would be considered a very slight underdog, as that would mean it would take a $105 bet to win $100, as opposed to a $115 risk for the other side.
Moneyline Underdog.
Reading moneyline odds is very similar to reading the vig, with the only difference being the numbers can be far more distant from even.
In moneyline sports (baseball and hockey are the main American ones), you??™re betting on which team will simply win the game, rather than the expected margin of victory.
Sometimes you??™ll come across games in which both teams will have a minus sign (-115 vs. -105, for example). In such a game, just like in the pick??™em example above, the team listed with a smaller number (-105) is considered the slight underdog.
Should You Bet on Underdogs?
There is no simple answer to this question. If there were, bookmakers would be out of business in a hurry.
Of course, underdogs lose games more often than favorites, but that??™s not to say that they necessarily lose more money for bettors than favorites.
In fact, in the NFL, underdogs have covered the spread to the tune of a 2224-2169-135 record (50.6%) since 2003. Because of the vig, that still has resulted in an overall loss of money, but it??™s less money lost than would have come from taking every favorite.
On baseball moneylines, underdogs have gone 15,683-21,231 since 2005, but once again, have not lost quite as much money for bettors as favorites have.
Neither of those figures should be taken to suggest that you should only bet underdogs, but rather that the betting market has the game of sports betting pretty well figured out.
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5 Tips for Betting the Moneyline.
Value. Risk. High payouts. Betting on the moneyline combines all the factors that make gambling on sports such an exciting venture.
If you??™re not familiar with the term, the moneyline is best described as the odds you get when you bet on who will win a game straight up. When you take the spread out of the occasion, betting becomes less about luck and more about spotting your opportunities and taking advantage of them.
The unfortunate reality is that most amateur bettors ignore the moneyline because of the risk involved.
Either you bet on a favorite and risk losing more than you stand to gain, or you bet on the underdog and have a much higher chance to lose your bet.
With that being said, the moneyline presents a unique chance to win big if you have the right strategy in place. In this article, I??™ll lay out the factors to take into consideration that could help you capitalize on moneyline bets in all sports.
1 ??“ Selection Is Key.
In the same way the real estate is about location, location, location, betting on the moneyline is all about selection, selection??¦you get the point.
Whereas betting on the spread can leave more opportunity to win bets when you don??™t really know what you??™re doing, consistently adding to your bankroll via moneyline bets requires you to be picky when deciding which games to play.
Obviously, the trick in finding the best value is identifying games in which the underdog has a chance to win, or betting on a favorite isn??™t too costly. However, if you??™re playing multiple games at once, you can take a few more chances.
It??™s important to keep in mind that sportsbooks adjust their moneylines in accordance with the public??™s action, so you can find instances where the odds actually lean slightly your way if you have more knowledge of a game.
Research is key when deciding which plays to make, so do an adequate amount of homework and carefully choose which underdogs you think have a chance to win a game outright.
2 ??“ Long-Term Approach.
I can??™t stress this enough??”betting on the moneyline is a long-term game. Evaluating your success or failure after just a few games, or even a few weeks, isn??™t going to help you gather an accurate assessment.
Because the best value in betting moneylines is found on the underdog, you??™re almost always going to lose more bets than you win.
The key is recognizing that you can lose more than half of your bets and still make a ton of money if you win the right games.
One of the best ways to stay on top of how you??™re doing is by creating a tracking system so that you??™re aware of the money coming in and money going out. Because, as previously mentioned, you??™re likely to lose more bets than you win overall, it can create a distorted picture if you don??™t monitor things correctly.
3 ??“ Don??™t Neglect Favorites (But Choose Carefully)
Many bettors think that unless you only bet favorites, moneylines aren??™t worth the risk. However, that??™s not always the case.
It??™s probably best to stay away from favorites in the -250 to -300 range, as this is the spot where upsets are still entirely possible and it??™s not worth it to make a bet where you??™ll only return a third of your money.
If you??™re the type of bettor who wants to play the favorites, consider giving away some points, even if it??™s not the full spread. This will increase your payouts and slightly close the gap between risk and reward.
Another move that can be profitable is a multi-team parlay with moneyline favorites.
In any given NFL week, you can choose the top three or four most lopsided games and still get a nice haul if you hit on each. While you might only win the same amount you bet, meaning $100 to win $100, it??™s not necessarily too big of a risk. Just keep in mind that, as the clich?© goes, anyone can win on any given Sunday.
The best odds for betting favorites exists in the -150 to -200 range. These lines present an opportunity to win back decent money for your bet. Obviously, you??™re going to suffer some losses that will make you feel like it??™s pointless to bet on the favorite, but that??™s the price you pay for picking the team that ???should??? win.
4 ??“ Consider the Sport.
Bettors who like gambling on baseball and hockey games are acquainted with the power of the moneyline in a unique way. Unlike basketball and football, baseball and hockey??™s ???default??? play is who will win the game outright.
Most baseball betting purists will contend that it??™s always a smarter move to put your money on the underdog.
After all, even the worst teams in the league win about 60 times per year. Because of the unpredictability of who will win is so high, when you??™re able to find an underdog at -200 or more, the value is hard to resist. Though the winning percentage numbers are slightly different, the same philosophy holds true for hockey.
Things are a little different when it comes to betting on football and basketball moneylines. In football, if there??™s a favorite of -200 or more, statistically, they??™re much more likely to win the game outright than in other sports.
Basketball can be a bit more difficult, as good teams are susceptible to upsets, but only in certain situations. If you??™re betting on the NBA, do your research to find out which scenarios create a better chance for the underdog to win and you can make educated plays with high value.
Determining the likelihood of underdogs winning outright is always going to be a complicated proposition, so make sure to do research specific to the sport you want to bet on before taking the leap.
5 ??“ Assess Value.
All gamblers know that the key to a good betting strategy is making plays with good value. Finding value is a concept that??™s easy in theory, but extremely difficult in practice.
Sportsbooks put a value on each time via the moneyline, and while this is a good starting point, it isn??™t necessarily always accurate. This means that you??™ll have to do some work on your end to see if your prediction of the potential outcome of a game align with the odds presented.
The best way to do this is by first evaluating each game without looking at the moneyline.
Take all factors into account such as injuries, whether or not a team is hot or cold, past history between the two teams, and obviously overall team talent. This will help you decide if a team is over, under, or properly valued.
You??™ll find that an undervalued underdog is attractive because you can bet less to win more. Although this is absolutely true, bettors have a tendency to overlook undervalued favorites. If there was ever such thing as a ???safe??? bet, it??™s a moneyline favorite when you can get odds better than -150.
Conclusion.
It??™s unlikely that you??™ll give up betting on spreads entirely, but adding the moneyline option to your betting strategy can have huge benefits. It??™s a good way to recognize that not only do favorites not always cover the spread, but they often lose outright.
Find a specialty, whether it??™s finding value in favorites or underdogs, and see if you can steal a few games without worrying about covering.
Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.
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9 NHL Handicapping Betting Tips from Expert Hockey Handicappers.
Doc's Sports Services is the most trusted and well-respected sports information company in the United States. Below you will find nine tips from the most advanced team of NHL handicappers. We do some of the most in-depth NHL handicapping in the country, and our service is second-to-none in terms of both results and customer relations. In our fifth decade of existence, Doc's Sports is the gold standard in the sports information industry.
We offer our clients top NHL predictions at one fair price. Our NHL handicappers release a full slate of NHL picks at 1 p.m. EST seven days a week. Every one of our NHL handicappers has a different style, but all have enjoyed vast success in professional hockey.
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We offer many packages to accommodate anyone's needs - from one-day big play picks to one-week packages to our comprehensive full-season package.
All of our NHL Handicapping picks come with a rotation number, unit rating ( Click Here to read more about our Unit System for the best money management), time and date of the game and a detailed analysis.
Here are your 9 NHL handicapping tips:
DOC'S SPORTS - "What have you done for me lately?" That's the mantra you should adopt when handicapping hockey. The NHL is a fluid league as teams ebb and flow based on the grueling schedule, chemistry amongst line mates, injuries, etc. Look for teams that are playing well and maybe flying under the radar because of their overall record or a tough stretch in their schedule. Maybe a team is 1-4 in their last five games, but all five of those were against the top-echelon teams, and three of those went into overtime. That's a good sign as the scores of the games certainly matter as well as the shot attempts. There are plenty of deceiving scores based on a goaltender that stops everything coming his way despite the opposition dominating the puck that day. Break down those box scores and find out what is really going on. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here.
ROBERT FERRINGO - I'm sure you've heard the saying that, "styles make fights" in regards to boxing. Well, it shouldn't be a surprise that this is the perfect sentiment to use when discussing the one sport in which players are allowed to throw punches on ice! To be a good hockey handicapper you have to understand the particular style of play that each team possesses. From there you can determine how they relate to one another. And, this is key, keep in mind that the majority of the time the home team in a game is able to dictate its tempo. So if a fast-and-loose Western Conference team rolls into an Eastern Conference rink to play a trap-and-grab team you should expect that the home club is going to set the pace. Home ice doesn't mean more in hockey than in other sports in terms of betting value. But knowing how each team likes to play and where they are playing will give you a framework of how the game will be played. From there you can determine where the value lies.
RAPHAEL ESPARZA - If you know the NHL game well or follow hockey religiously you can find some really good value in hockey betting. It's no secret that NHL is bet the least of all major sports, and I know for a fact that hockey wagers are only one percent of all bets being placed in Vegas sportsbooks. What does that mean? The oddsmakers don't pay much attention to the NHL season. So you can catch some soft moneylines because the oddsmaker is looking at the other major sports. Make sure you look at who is the starting goalie as well because that can determine the moneyline movement and the 'over/under'. Some back-up goalies are just as good as the starter, so you get a good adjusted number that has great betting value. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS - Don't waste your time with hockey totals! Hockey totals are by far the toughest area in which to make money betting on sports. There isn't much variance in hockey totals; they are all pretty much 5.0 or 5.5. And that right there should be a big red flag to prospective bettors. We've found that over the last several years that there are very rarely true "over" or "under" teams during an NHL season, and most teams are within a few games of .500 in regards to totals each season. Add in the fact that you have to deal with a lot of 'push' games on 5.0 and 6.0 totals, and the whole thing isn't worth your time. Just stick to sides in the NHL.
INDIAN COWBOY - We want to focus and share one main theory that we use in handicapping the NHL. It is called the "active underdog over theory". The active underdog theory is essentially taking an underdog that you believe will be an active underdog (either due to revenge against a team from an earlier season loss, coming off a double-digit loss, losing outright to a team they were heavily favored against, etc.) and taking the 'over' with this team. So you expect a team that is looking to exceed expectations over the line currently constructed for them. So anytime that you think a team that is an underdog is going to exceed expectations against a team then take the 'over'. This is because if the underdog is highly motivated as we discussed for revenge, coming off a double-digit loss, or losing outright to a team they were favored straight up against, then certainly they will be motivated to exceed the amount of points they are expected to score in their next game. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here.
MIKE DAVIS - Betting on the National Hockey League can be very profitable. Unlike other professional sports, the disparity between the top teams and the bottom teams is usually fairly wide. I look for mismatches on the card each day. I pay close attention to the depth of the third and fourth lines, especially during the regular season. Playing good teams on the road versus bad teams can provide good value as the lines will be lower and home-ice advantage is not as big as one might think. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here.
ALAN HARRIS - Look for spots to play the backup goalie. In many cases in the NHL, a teams' backup goalie will have stats similar to that of the starter. However, when they are inserted into the line-up, the money line will sometimes drop by 20 or 30 cents. Another play on this theory is when a starting goalie goes down with an injury that will make him miss significant time. Look to play on the back up until the oddsmakers adjust for the fact that really there isn't that much difference between the starter and backup in some cases. Also, the players know that the backup busts his hump in practice for them, and when he earns a start the players sometimes play with some extra effort to try and get the backup a win.
VERNON CROY - The NHL is one of the best sports in the entire world to bet on because the entire world does not bet on the NHL, so there is great value on a daily basis. The best tip I can give you when betting on the NHL is what you see is what you get, so do your homework and read the teams' news. Normally when a team has dominated another team in the past they will more often than not dominate them again, regardless if they are in a slump or not. Get $60 in free member picks - no obligation - click here.
Here is a list of handicapping tips and picks from the other sports we offer:
The bottom line is to win more that you lose, and that's what has kept us in business since 1971. Be sure to check out our top navigation bar. We have many free tools available to you like our matchup reports and our daily updated NFL Tips, college football tips , NBA tips, college basketball tips, MLB tips , and NHL tips.
Sports Betting 101 - How to Bet Hockey.
Contents.
How to Bet on Hockey.
Hockey betting in the United States is far from the most popular sport in the land, but ever since the gambling capital of the country ??“ Las Vegas ??“ got a team in, the Golden Knights, in 2017, interest in hockey betting markets has picked up.
Betting on hockey is similar in concept to that of baseball lines, as hockey is predominantly a money line based sport with standardized point spread prices of -1.5 goals ??“ like baseball is with -1.5 runs. Hockey betting odds are offered at every sportsbook, so finding the game you like is never tough, and if money lines aren't your thing, over-under totals in hockey are offered on every game as well, among other wagering potential.
Understanding Hockey Odds.
As a money line based sport with so many similarities to baseball betting, understanding hockey odds follows a similar format. For example, you can have a game between the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins where the Penguins would be listed as a -165 favorite on the money line. That means that a bettor would have to put up $165 to win $100 if they were to back Pittsburgh, and the total for that game would be somewhere in the range of 5.5 to 6.5 goals.
NHL Future Wagers.
Future wagers in NHL betting exist in a similar format to that of other professional sports offered at sportsbooks, as outcomes like who will win it all, who will win their division/conference, and season point totals are offered for hockey. Season point total wagers are essentially what other sports would classify as season wins ??“ over-under props ??“ but with the point system in the standings for hockey being a little different, a point-based system is just an all around better way to do things on the ice.
Stanley Cup futures odds are the ones that are posted the earliest leading up to an upcoming season, and the ones that are discussed frequently. However, with hockey being a sport where numerous upsets happen each year during a playoff campaign, and random luck being more of a factor in the sport then in other professional sports, staying away from the favored teams in the futures market isn't necessarily a bad idea in hockey. It's not like the favorites don't win, but considering the team that wins the President's Trophy ??“ awarded to the team that finishes the regular season with the most points in the league, ie the best team ??“ eight times in a 33-year existence, and only twice from 2002-03 through 2018-19, going a bit down the odds board in the futures market can be lucrative.
How to Bet the Stanley Cup Final.
Stanley Cup Finals betting is one where bettors can treat the final series like that of the World Series or NBA Finals whereas they can look towards taking action on the series price ??“ which team will hoist the trophy ??“ and/or a game-by-game approach too. Stanley Cup Finals odds for the series price will change after each game is completed, so bettors should keep that in mind as well should their desired team fall short in Game 1 of the series. More of an underdog price on said team will be posted then, but there is always the fear of said team winning Game 1 and missing out on the pre-series line if you are to wait. It's a delicate balance that gets easier with experience.
NHL playoff odds throughout the spring are ones that offer plenty of wagering opportunities, and ones that culminate in the Stanley Cup Final line getting posted. Bettors with future wagers still live at that point have a question about ???hedging or not??? at that point ??“ hedging would be to take the St Louis Blues to win the Finals when a bettor already has a previously placed bet on their opponent in the Finals ??“ to assure themselves profit, but again, that's another situation that can be more easily addressed with betting experience.
How to Bet the NHL Playoffs.
Betting the NHL playoffs can be done on a game-by-game or series price basis, and there are even prop wagers related to which team will win in how many games, and how many games a series will have.
With a full season of regular season data already in the stable by the time the NHL betting lines are released for the playoffs, bettors have to be aware that these numbers that the oddsmakers put out for their hockey betting lines during the postseason are theoretically as sharp as they've been all year. Sure, there are still things like luck and bounces to consider that seemingly derail at least one of the NHL's best teams early on in the playoffs, but NHL hockey odds during the playoffs need to be dissected thoroughly if success is to be had.
And for those bettors that live for the underdogs pulling off upsets, going for bigger scores on the hockey point spreads in the alternative lines and other variations of hockey odds that are offered during that time of year can prove to be bankroll boosters as well. Below are some of the best betting sites to begin your NHL betting career.
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